If We Do Nothing

What would happen if the current trajectory continues without coordinated intervention

The Current Trajectory

Humanity has followed a trajectory of increasing artificialization since the domestication of fire. This trajectory is not an accident or a mistake—it's a deterministic process that reinforces itself.

The central problem: Artificial systems transform the environment in ways incompatible with the regulations of life. Result: mass extinction of species, soil degradation, ecosystem collapse, widespread human pathologies.

Why fire led to all this: Fire made agriculture possible (slash-and-burn clearing, cooking grains, viable storage). Agriculture enabled sedentarization, surpluses, population density. Surpluses enabled the State, hierarchies, civilization. Industry. Each step necessarily leads to the next.

The problem of competitive pressure:

Out of 1000 hunter-gatherer groups with fire, it only takes ONE to develop agriculture for its population to multiply by 10-100 and conquer neighboring territories. The other 999 are forced to adopt agriculture or be eliminated. This is what happened historically: within a few millennia after the emergence of agriculture (≈ -10,000), it conquered almost the entire planet.

Three Scenarios If We Do Nothing

If this trajectory continues without coordinated intervention (currently the most likely scenario), three scenarios seem possible:

Scenario 1: Extinction of Complex Life

Ecological destruction until the collapse of complex life. Bacteria, single-celled algae and other simple life forms would probably persist, but complex ecosystems (mammals, birds, flowering plants, forests, living oceans) would collapse.

Mass species extinction (6th extinction underway), irreversible degradation of soils and forests, collapse of support systems (agriculture, fishing, pollination). Massive famines, resource wars, deaths by the billions. Human extinction would then become probable.

Current documented context:

  • Wild mammals = 4% of total mammal biomass (PNAS 2018)
  • 33% of soils degraded globally (UNCCD)
  • Primary forests < 10% of their historical extent
  • Extinction rate 100-1000x higher than natural rate (IPBES 2019)
  • ≈ 35% of fish stocks overexploited (FAO)

Scenario 2: Artificial Adaptation of Humans

Humans would adapt to artificiality rather than the reverse.

Possible continuum: Increasing biological degeneration (total medical dependency, widespread pathologies, inability to survive without technological prosthetics) → technological modifications (neural implants, artificial organs, CRISPR) → accomplished transhumanism → gradual disappearance of the biological human as it exists.

Current trajectory: Increasing medical dependency (diabetes, allergies, widespread immune disorders), rapid development of AI and neural interfaces, genetic modifications already underway (CRISPR babies in China, 2018), increasingly sophisticated prosthetics and implants, increasingly mainstream transhumanist discourse (Silicon Valley, futurism).

Scenario 3: Chaotic Collapse with Uncertain Survival

Industrial civilization could collapse without coordination. Widespread violence, precarious survival in ruins, absence of organized knowledge transmission. Human survival would then be very uncertain—high risk of extinction by famine, epidemic, war, or inability to survive in a degraded environment.

In case of survival: In the absence of collective understanding of the trajectory and material constraints preventing reindustrialization, artificiality could restart. A few generations later, metallurgy and intensive agriculture could be rediscovered. The trajectory would resume, aggravated by an already degraded environment. Each cycle would destroy more biodiversity, bringing us closer to final extinction.

Why this scenario seems likely: This is what would happen if collapse arrived without preparation and without collective awareness of the origin of the problem.

Possible Combinations

These scenarios are not mutually exclusive. Combinations are probable:

  • Geographic fragmentation: Some zones could experience extinction, others transhumanism, others chaotic survival
  • Temporal succession: A chaotic collapse could lead to extinction for the majority and transhumanism for an elite
  • Cycles: Successive collapses with partial reindustrializations could occur, until final extinction

What Remains Uncertain

  • Exact timing: We don't know when these processes will reach critical thresholds. The time scale can be a few decades to a few centuries.
  • Geographic extent: Some regions and populations would be more resilient than others.
  • Tipping points: Points of no return identified but their exact threshold remains unknown.
  • Other scenarios: This list is not exhaustive. Other unidentified trajectories could exist.

Why These Trajectories Are the Worst

They would all involve:

  • Maximum suffering during the transition (famines, violence, chaos)
  • Loss of biological autonomy (total dependency or disappearance of the biological)
  • Irreversible destruction of biodiversity
  • Absence of preparation (transition undergone, not chosen)
  • Loss of knowledge that could facilitate an organized exit

In all cases: artificiality persists (scenario 2), everything collapses (scenario 1), or the cycle restarts without resolution (scenario 3).

Alternatives Exist

Faced with these catastrophic trajectories, coordinated exit scenarios are theoretically possible—but require collective understanding and organized action.